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Fig. 6. (Color online) Winning Probability Analysis Index. (a) Analysis index IP(t) based on provincial voter turnout data. (b) Analysis index IC(t) based on 20 districts with strong political tendencies. A positive analysis index suggests a higher probability of a conservative candidate winning, while a negative index indicates a higher probability for a liberal candidate. Matches with actual presidential election outcomes are marked in green, mismatches in orange. In (a), 4 (from the 15th to the 18th elections) out of 6 cases matched, whereas in (b), all 6 cases were consistent with the election results.
New Phys.: Sae Mulli 2024;74:423~431