npsm logo

Download original image
Fig. 6. (Color online) Winning Probability Analysis Index. (a) Analysis index IP(t) based on provincial voter turnout data. (b) Analysis index IC(t) based on 20 districts with strong political tendencies. A positive analysis index suggests a higher probability of a conservative candidate winning, while a negative index indicates a higher probability for a liberal candidate. Matches with actual presidential election outcomes are marked in green, mismatches in orange. In (a), 4 (from the 15th to the 18th elections) out of 6 cases matched, whereas in (b), all 6 cases were consistent with the election results.
New Phys.: Sae Mulli 2024;74:423~431 https://doi.org/10.3938/NPSM.74.423
© NPSM