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Fig. 7. (Color online) Winning Prediction Index P‚ÄčCt(t) for the 18th, 19th, and 20th elections, utilizing vote results from the preceding elections and voter turnouts from the respective elections. (a) Index based on voter turnout at election closing time. (b) Index using the last voter turnout data announced before closing (1 hour or 1 hour 30 minutes prior). Both Index accurately predict conservative victories in the 18th and 20th elections with positive values and a liberal victory in the 19th election with a negative value.
New Phys.: Sae Mulli 2024;74:423~431