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https://doi.org/10.3938/NPSM.69.1288
The Physical Stock Market Modelling and the Daily Price Predicting Indicator
New Phys.: Sae Mulli 2019; 69: 1288~1294
Published online December 31, 2019;  https://doi.org/10.3938/NPSM.69.1288
© 2019 New Physics: Sae Mulli.

Sangup PARK*

Department of Nano Advanced Materials Engineering, JeonJu University, Jeonju 55069, Korea
Correspondence to: sangup@jj.ac.kr
Received September 26, 2019; Revised October 17, 2019; Accepted October 17, 2019.
cc This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
We construct the physical stock market and an indicator for the closing price from the economic function of the stock price flow. The thermodynamical potential of the Bose-Einstein partition function of nonlocal free particles near zero temperature shows that a society having motive serves as the entropy of the potential and states with negative internal energy and participators serve as the number of particles. By connecting the economic function and the internal energy, we find a thermal-state space similar to the Hilbert space of information on the stock price flow. The Hilbert space has a quantum phase operator and a finite number of quantum phase states. Thus, we define it as the physical stock market. The Berry phase of the states is introduced, and the correlation function between the Berry phase and the returns of the stock price is calculated. Thus, the correlation with the current return shows a stable value of about 85% after 5 minutes. The correlation with the closing return shows about 60% and 70% agreement after 50 and 100 minutes from the opening. Thus, we see the Berry phase as a good predictor of the closing price.
PACS numbers: 03.65.Vf, 05.30.Jp, 02.50.$-$r, 05.90.+m
Keywords: Physical stock market, Berry phase, Returns, Quantum phase hilbert space, Correlation function


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